Decision-Making in a Dynamic Environment
A solid approach to decision-making is through the use of
analytical models, such as the 5 Ps, 3P, and DECIDE. Good
decisions result when pilots gather all available information,
review it, analyze the options, rate the options, select a course
of action, and evaluate that course of action for correctness.
In some situations, there is not always time to make decisions
based on analytical decision-making skills. A good example
is a quarterback whose actions are based upon a highly fluid
and changing situation. He intends to execute a plan, but new
circumstances dictate decision-making on the fly. This type
of decision-making is called automatic decision-making or
naturalized decision-making. [Figure 2-14B]
Automatic Decision-Making
In an emergency situation, a pilot might not survive if he or
she rigorously applies analytical models to every decision
made as there is not enough time to go through all the options.
Under these circumstances he or she should attempt to find
the best possible solution to every problem.
For the past several decades, research into how people
actually make decisions has revealed that when pressed for
time, experts faced with a task loaded with uncertainty first
assess whether the situation strikes them as familiar. Rather
than comparing the pros and cons of different approaches,
they quickly imagine how one or a few possible courses of
action in such situations will play out. Experts take the first
workable option they can find. While it may not be the best of
all possible choices, it often yields remarkably good results.
The terms “naturalistic” and “automatic decision-making”
have been coined to describe this type of decision-making.
The ability to make automatic decisions holds true for a
range of experts from firefighters to chess players. It appears
the expert’s ability hinges on the recognition of patterns and
consistencies that clarify options in complex situations. Experts
appear to make provisional sense of a situation, without
actually reaching a decision, by launching experience-based
actions that in turn trigger creative revisions.
This is a reflexive type of decision-making anchored in
training and experience and is most often used in times of
emergencies when there is no time to practice analytical
decision-making. Naturalistic or automatic decision-making
improves with training and experience, and a pilot will find
himself or herself using a combination of decision-making
tools that correlate with individual experience and training.
Operational Pitfalls
Although more experienced pilots are likely to make more
automatic decisions, there are tendencies or operational
pitfalls that come with the development of pilot experience.
These are classic behavioral traps into which pilots have
been known to fall. More experienced pilots, as a rule, try
to complete a flight as planned, please passengers, and meet
schedules. The desire to meet these goals can have an adverse
effect on safety and contribute to an unrealistic assessment
of piloting skills. All experienced pilots have fallen prey to,
or have been tempted by, one or more of these tendencies in
their flying careers. These dangerous tendencies or behavior
patterns, which must be identified and eliminated, include
the operational pitfalls shown in Figure 2-15.
Stress Management
Everyone is stressed to some degree almost all of the time. A
certain amount of stress is good since it keeps a person alert
and prevents complacency. Effects of stress are cumulative
and, if the pilot does not cope with them in an appropriate
way, they can eventually add up to an intolerable burden.
Performance generally increases with the onset of stress,
peaks, and then begins to fall off rapidly as stress levels
exceed a person’s ability to cope. The ability to make
effective decisions during flight can be impaired by stress.
There are two categories of stress—acute and chronic. These
are both explained in Chapter 17, “Aeromedical Factors.”
Factors referred to as stressors can increase a pilot’s risk of
error in the flight deck. [Figure 2-16] Remember the cabin
door that suddenly opened in flight on the Mooney climbing
through 1,500 feet on a clear sunny day? It may startle the
pilot, but the stress would wane when it became apparent
the situation was not a serious hazard. Yet, if the cabin door
opened in IMC conditions, the stress level makes significant
impact on the pilot’s ability to cope with simple tasks. The
key to stress management is to stop, think, and analyze before
jumping to a conclusion. There is usually time to think before
drawing unnecessary conclusions.
There are several techniques to help manage the accumulation
of life stresses and prevent stress overload. For example, to
help reduce stress levels, set aside time for relaxation each
day or maintain a program of physical fitness. To prevent
stress overload, learn to manage time more effectively to
avoid pressures imposed by getting behind schedule and not
meeting deadlines.
Use of Resources
To make informed decisions during flight operations, a pilot
must also become aware of the resources found inside and
outside the flight deck. Since useful tools and sources of
information may not always be readily apparent, learning
to recognize these resources is an essential part of ADM
training. Resources must not only be identified, but a pilot
must also develop the skills to evaluate whether there is
Stressors
Environmental
Conditions associated with the environment, such as temperature and humidity extremes, noise, vibration, and lack of oxygen.
Physiological stress
Physical conditions, such as fatigue, lack of physical fitness, sleep loss, missed meals (leading to low blood sugar levels), and
illness.
Psychological stress
Social or emotional factors, such as a death in the family, a divorce, a sick child, or a demotion at work. This type of stress may
also be related to mental workload, such as analyzing a problem, navigating an aircraft, or making decisions.
Figure 2-16. System stressors. Environmental, physiological, and psychological stress are factors that affect decision-making skills.
These stressors have a profound impact especially during periods of high workload.
Figure 2-15. Typical operational pitfalls requiring pilot awareness.
Operational pitfalls
Peer pressure
Poor decision-making may be based upon an emotional response to peers, rather than evaluating a situation objectively.
Mindset
A pilot displays mind set through an inability to recognize and cope with changes in a given situation.
Get-there-itis
This disposition impairs pilot judgment through a fixation on the original goal or destination, combined with a disregard for any
alternative course of action.
Duck-under syndrome
A pilot may be tempted to make it into an airport by descending below minimums during an approach. There may be a belief that
there is a built-in margin of error in every approach procedure, or a pilot may want to admit that the landing cannot be completed
and a missed approach must be initiated.
Scud running
This occurs when a pilot tries to maintain visual contact with the terrain at low altitudes while instrument conditions exist.
Continuing visual flight rules (VFR) into instrument conditions
Spatial disorientation or collision with ground/obstacles may occur when a pilot continues VFR into instrument conditions. This can
be even more dangerous if the pilot is not instrument rated or current.
Getting behind the aircraft
This pitfall can be caused by allowing events or the situation to control pilot actions. A constant state of surprise at what happens
next may be exhibited when the pilot is getting behind the aircraft.
Loss of positional or situational awareness
In extreme cases, when a pilot gets behind the aircraft, a loss of positional or situational awareness may result. The pilot may not
know the aircraft’s geographical location or may be unable to recognize deteriorating circumstances.
Operating without adequate fuel reserves
Ignoring minimum fuel reserve requirements is generally the result of overconfidence, lack of flight planning, or disregarding
applicable regulations.
Descent below the minimum en route altitude
The duck-under syndrome, as mentioned above, can also occur during the en route portion of an IFR flight.
Flying outside the envelope
The assumed high performance capability of a particular aircraft may cause a mistaken belief that it can meet the demands
imposed by a pilot’s overestimated flying skills.
Neglect of flight planning, preflight inspections, and checklists
A pilot may rely on short- and long-term memory, regular flying skills, and familiar routes instead of established procedures and
published checklists. This can be particularly true of experienced pilots.
Operational Pitfalls
Figure 2-17. When possible, have a passenger reconfirm that critical
tasks are completed.
Figure 2-18. Controllers work to make flights as safe as possible.
time to use a particular resource and the impact its use will
have upon the safety of flight. For example, the assistance
of ATC may be very useful if a pilot becomes lost, but in
an emergency situation, there may be no time available to
contact ATC.
Internal Resources
One of the most underutilized resources may be the
person in the right seat, even if the passenger has no flying
experience. When appropriate, the PIC can ask passengers
to assist with certain tasks, such as watching for traffic or
reading checklist items. The following are some other ways
a passenger can assist:
• Provide information in an irregular situation,
especially if familiar with flying. A strange smell or
sound may alert a passenger to a potential problem.
• Confirm after the pilot that the landing gear is down.
• Learn to look at the altimeter for a given altitude in a
descent.
• Listen to logic or lack of logic.
Also, the process of a verbal briefing (which can happen
whether or not passengers are aboard) can help the PIC in
the decision-making process. For example, assume a pilot
provides a lone passenger a briefing of the forecast landing
weather before departure. When the Automatic Terminal
Information Service (ATIS) is picked up, the weather
has significantly changed. The discussion of this forecast
change can lead the pilot to reexamine his or her activities
and decision-making. [Figure 2-17] Other valuable internal
resources include ingenuity, aviation knowledge, and flying
skill. Pilots can increase flight deck resources by improving
these characteristics.
When flying alone, another internal resource is verbal
communication. It has been established that verbal
communication reinforces an activity; touching an object
while communicating further enhances the probability an
activity has been accomplished. For this reason, many solo
pilots read the checklist out loud; when they reach critical
items, they touch the switch or control. For example, to
ascertain the landing gear is down, the pilot can read the
checklist. But, if he or she touches the gear handle during the
process, a safe extension of the landing gear is confirmed.
It is necessary for a pilot to have a thorough understanding
of all the equipment and systems in the aircraft being flown.
Lack of knowledge, such as knowing if the oil pressure
gauge is direct reading or uses a sensor, is the difference
between making a wise decision or poor one that leads to
a tragic error.
Checklists are essential flight deck internal resources. They
are used to verify the aircraft instruments and systems are
checked, set, and operating properly, as well as ensuring
the proper procedures are performed if there is a system
malfunction or in-flight emergency. Students reluctant to
use checklists can be reminded that pilots at all levels of
experience refer to checklists, and that the more advanced the
aircraft is, the more crucial checklists become. In addition, the
pilot’s operating handbook (POH) is required to be carried on
board the aircraft and is essential for accurate flight planning
and resolving in-flight equipment malfunctions. However,
the most valuable resource a pilot has is the ability to manage
workload whether alone or with others.
External Resources
ATC and flight service specialists are the best external
resources during flight. In order to promote the safe, orderly
flow of air traffic around airports and, along flight routes, the
ATC provides pilots with traffic advisories, radar vectors,
and assistance in emergency situations. Although it is the
PIC’s responsibility to make the flight as safe as possible,
a pilot with a problem can request assistance from ATC.
[Figure 2-18] For example, if a pilot needs to level off, be
Figure 2-19. Balancing workloads can be a difficult task.
given a vector, or decrease speed, ATC assists and becomes
integrated as part of the crew. The services provided by ATC
can not only decrease pilot workload, but also help pilots
make informed in-flight decisions.
The Flight Service Stations (FSSs) are air traffic facilities
that provide pilot briefing, en route communications, VFR
search and rescue services, assist lost aircraft and aircraft
in emergency situations, relay ATC clearances, originate
Notices to Airmen (NOTAM), broadcast aviation weather
and National Airspace System (NAS) information, receive
and process IFR flight plans, and monitor navigational aids
(NAVAIDs). In addition, at selected locations, FSSs provide
En Route Flight Advisory Service (Flight Watch), issue
airport advisories, and advise Customs and Immigration of
transborder flights. Selected FSSs in Alaska also provide
TWEB recordings and take weather observations.
Situational Awareness
Situational awareness is the accurate perception and
understanding of all the factors and conditions within
the five fundamental risk elements (flight, pilot, aircraft,
environment, and type of operation that comprise any given
aviation situation) that affect safety before, during, and after
the flight. Monitoring radio communications for traffic,
weather discussion, and ATC communication can enhance
situational awareness by helping the pilot develop a mental
picture of what is happening.
Maintaining situational awareness requires an understanding
of the relative significance of all flight related factors and their
future impact on the flight. When a pilot understands what is
going on and has an overview of the total operation, he or she
is not fixated on one perceived significant factor. Not only
is it important for a pilot to know the aircraft’s geographical
location, it is also important he or she understand what is
happening. For instance, while flying above Richmond,
Virginia, toward Dulles Airport or Leesburg, the pilot
should know why he or she is being vectored and be able to
anticipate spatial location. A pilot who is simply making turns
without understanding why has added an additional burden
to his or her management in the event of an emergency. To
maintain situational awareness, all of the skills involved in
ADM are used.
Obstacles to Maintaining Situational Awareness
Fatigue, stress, and work overload can cause a pilot to fixate
on a single perceived important item and reduce an overall
situational awareness of the flight. A contributing factor
in many accidents is a distraction that diverts the pilot’s
attention from monitoring the instruments or scanning
outside the aircraft. Many flight deck distractions begin as a
minor problem, such as a gauge that is not reading correctly,
but result in accidents as the pilot diverts attention to the
perceived problem and neglects proper control of the aircraft.
Workload Management
Effective workload management ensures essential operations
are accomplished by planning, prioritizing, and sequencing
tasks to avoid work overload. [Figure 2-19] As experience
is gained, a pilot learns to recognize future workload
requirements and can prepare for high workload periods
during times of low workload. Reviewing the appropriate
chart and setting radio frequencies well in advance of when
they are needed helps reduce workload as the flight nears the
airport. In addition, a pilot should listen to ATIS, Automated
Surface Observing System (ASOS), or Automated Weather
Observing System (AWOS), if available, and then monitor
the tower frequency or Common Traffic Advisory Frequency
(CTAF) to get a good idea of what traffic conditions to
expect. Checklists should be performed well in advance so
there is time to focus on traffic and ATC instructions. These
procedures are especially important prior to entering a high-
density traffic area, such as Class B airspace.
Recognizing a work overload situation is also an important
component of managing workload. The first effect of
high workload is that the pilot may be working harder but
accomplishing less. As workload increases, attention cannot
be devoted to several tasks at one time, and the pilot may
begin to focus on one item. When a pilot becomes task
saturated, there is no awareness of input from various sources,
so decisions may be made on incomplete information and the
possibility of error increases. [Figure 2-20]
When a work overload situation exists, a pilot needs to stop,
think, slow down, and prioritize. It is important to understand
how to decrease workload. For example, in the case of the
cabin door that opened in VFR flight, the impact on workload
should be insignificant. If the cabin door opens under
IFR different conditions, its impact on workload changes.
Therefore, placing a situation in the proper perspective,
Figure 2-20. The pilot has a certain capacity of doing work and handling tasks. However, there is a point where the tasking exceeds the
pilot’s capability. When this happens, tasks are either not performed properly or some are not performed at all.
Preflight
Takeoff
Cruise
Approach & landing
Time
Task load
High
Low
Pilot capabilities
Task requirements
remaining calm, and thinking rationally are key elements in
reducing stress and increasing the capacity to fly safely. This
ability depends upon experience, discipline, and training.
Managing Risks
The ability to manage risks begins with preparation. Here
are some things a pilot can do to manage risks:
• Assess the flight’s risk based upon experience. Use
some form of risk assessment. For example, if the
weather is marginal and the pilot has little IMC
training, it is probably a good idea to cancel the flight.
• Brief passengers using the SAFETY list:
S Seat belts fastened for taxi, takeoff, landing
Shoulder harness fastened for takeoff, landing
Seat position adjusted and locked in place
A Air vents (location and operation)
All environmental controls (discussed)
Action in case of any passenger discomfort
F Fire extinguisher (location and operation)
E Exit doors (how to secure; how to open)
Emergency evacuation plan
Emergency/survival kit (location and contents)
T Traffic (scanning, spotting, notifying pilot)
Talking, (“sterile flight deck” expectations)
Y Your questions? (Speak up!)
• In addition to the SAFETY list, discuss with
passengers whether or not smoking is permitted, flight
route altitudes, time en route, destination, weather
during flight, expected weather at the destination,
controls and what they do, and the general capabilities
and limitations of the aircraft.
• Use a sterile flight deck (one that is completely silent
with no pilot communication with passengers or by
passengers) from the time of departure to the first
intermediate altitude and clearance from the local
airspace.
• Use a sterile flight deck during arrival from the first
radar vector for approach or descent for the approach.
• Keep the passengers informed during times when the
workload is low.
• Consider using the passenger in the right seat for
simple tasks, such as holding the chart. This relieves
the pilot of a task.
Automation
In the GA community, an automated aircraft is generally
comprised of an integrated advanced avionics system
consisting of a primary flight display (PFD), a multifunction
flight display (MFD) including an instrument-certified global
positioning system (GPS) with traffic and terrain graphics,
and a fully integrated autopilot. This type of aircraft is
commonly known as a technically advanced aircraft (TAA).
In a TAA aircraft, there are typically two display (computer)
screens: PFD (left display screen) and MFD.
Figure 2-21. Electronic flight instrumentation comes in many
systems and provides a myriad of information to the pilot.
Automation is the single most important advance in aviation
technologies. Electronic flight displays (EFDs) have made
vast improvements in how information is displayed and
what information is available to the pilot. Pilots can access
electronic databases that contain all of the information
traditionally contained in multiple handbooks, reducing
clutter in the flight deck. [Figure 2-21]
MFDs are capable of displaying moving maps that mirror
sectional charts. These detailed displays depict all airspace,
including Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs). MFDs are
so descriptive that many pilots fall into the trap of relying
solely on the moving maps for navigation. Pilots also draw
upon the database to familiarize themselves with departure
and destination airport information.
More pilots now rely on electronic databases for flight
planning and use automated flight planning tools rather
than planning the flight by the traditional methods of laying
out charts, drawing the course, identifying navigation
points (assuming a VFR flight), and using the POH to
figure out the weight and balance and performance charts.
Whichever method a pilot chooses to plan a flight, it is
important to remember to check and confirm calculations.
Always remember that it is up to the pilot to maintain basic
airmanship skills and use those skills often to maintain
proficiency in all tasks.
Although automation has made flying safer, automated
systems can make some errors more evident and sometimes
hide other errors or make them less evident. There are
concerns about the effect of automation on pilots. In a study
published in 1995, the British Airline Pilots Association
officially voiced its concern that “Airline pilots increasingly
lack ‘basic flying skills’ as a result of reliance on automation.”
This reliance on automation translates into a lack of basic flying
skills that may affect the pilot’s ability to cope with an in-flight
emergency, such as sudden mechanical failure. The worry that
pilots are becoming too reliant on automated systems and are
not being encouraged or trained to fly manually has grown
with the increase in the number of MFD flight decks.
As automated flight decks began entering everyday line
operations, instructors and check airmen grew concerned
about some of the unanticipated side effects. Despite the
promise of reducing human mistakes, the flight managers
reported the automation actually created much larger errors
at times. In the terminal environment, the workload in an
automated flight deck actually seemed higher than in the older
analog flight decks. At other times, the automation seemed
to lull the flight crews into complacency. Over time, concern
surfaced that the manual flying skills of the automated flight
crews deteriorated due to over-reliance on computers. The
flight crew managers said they worried that pilots would
have less “stick-and-rudder” proficiency when those skills
were needed to manually resume direct control of the aircraft.
A major study was conducted to evaluate the performance
of two groups of pilots. The control group was composed of
pilots who flew an older version of a common twin-jet airliner
equipped with analog instrumentation and the experimental
group was composed of pilots who flew the same aircraft,
but newer models equipped with an electronic flight
instrument system (EFIS) and a flight management system
(FMS). The pilots were evaluated in maintaining aircraft
parameters, such as heading, altitude, airspeed, glideslope,
and localizer deviations, as well as pilot control inputs. These
were recorded during a variety of normal, abnormal, and
emergency maneuvers during 4 hours of simulator sessions.